2014 has been a surprising year in many respects. Geopolitical risk made a comeback, the ECB went way beyond what could be expected at the start of the year and oil price plunged. A weaker euro and cheaper oil will contribute to a pick-up in economic momentum in the eurozone. US growth on the other hand is expected to proceed in a balanced way and the concern there is that it would end up being too strong with unpleasant consequences for monetary policy. For many developing economies the combination of a stronger dollar, lower commodity prices and the prospect of higher US rates creates a challenging environment.