William De Vijlder

Working from home is expected to have a positive impact on the level of productivity but will it also influence its growth rate? The answer largely depends on what happens to innovation. Interaction between people is key for idea generation and the exchange of information. Formal interaction can be easily organized using a variety of software applications but informal interaction is a bigger challenge. To make sure that serendipity within and amongst teams –given its importance for a culture of innovation- is maintained, a combination of working from home and onsite seems to be recommended.

One of the lasting consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic will be the way we work with more time spent on working from home compared to the pre-pandemic situation. Clearly, the possibility to do so depends to a large extent on the industry, the nature of the job but also the country. These developments would have profound implications on where people decide to live, the role of cities, the need for office space, the use of means of transport, the needs in terms of IT infrastructure (high-speed internet), etc. A priori, one would expect a positive impact on productivity, in particular due to increased worker satisfaction and efficiency. Based on recent surveys, that is also what companies seem to expect. However, empirical research shows that the impact on productivity largely depends on factors such as the IT infrastructure, employee preferences and the way it is introduced and accompanied by company management.

Based on an overview of the functions of a currency, cryptocurrencies should be considered as an investment instrument, rather than as an alternative to fiat money. Since the start of 2020, correlations between bitcoin and copper, equities and, in particular, breakeven inflation have increased. Probably, investors turn to bitcoin when inflation expectations are on the rise.  Swings in investor sentiment also play a role. The extent of the change in the bitcoin price suggests that speculative waves are at work, driven by momentum buying and extrapolative expectations of price appreciation. When the fundamental value of an instrument like a cryptocurrency is very hard if not impossible to determine and when short-term price changes are a multiple of those observed in equity markets, caution should prevail when building and managing an exposure.  

In a recent survey of 469 CFOs of US companies, 84% expect that the US will have entered recession by the first quarter of 2021. This raises the concern of self-realising bearish expectations. A positive correlation between business confidence and company decisions could reflect (anticipations of) strong fundamentals. It could also be due to animal spirits. The role of the latter is confirmed by empirical research by cesifo using data for German companies. In the aggregate, optimistic animal spirits have a bigger impact than pessimistic animal spirits.

In the European Union, CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion declined 2.5% in 2018 compared to the year before. Considering that GDP grew, this implies a reduction in carbon intensity, thereby continuing a long-term trend. The developments in individual countries vary and quite a number of countries have seen an increase in emissions. Likewise, the differences are considerable concerning the emissions per capita depending on the level of economic development, although this is just one factor amongst many which influence the emission intensity.

The recent “economists’ statement on carbon dividends” offers important policy prescriptions for the US to address global warming. It explicitly refers to the need for a border carbon adjustment system so as to maintain competitiveness versus countries that would not have introduced a carbon tax. The authors recommend that the carbon tax proceeds be equally distributed to US citizens It could be envisaged to use these proceeds in a way which takes into account the distributional aspects of environmental taxes whilst promoting energy efficiency investments.

High international correlations of markets can reflect the existence of global shocks, global swings in risk aversion or contagion. Contagion can be caused by a wide variety of factors. Taking into account the nature of the contagion is important when assessing its economic consequences.

The IMF and the OECD have expressed concern about rising trade tensions. At the macro level, tariffs create a lose-lose situation but the sector impact varies a lot. Beyond the direct economic effect, the impact on inflation and financial markets should also be taken into account. The biggest concern is the headwind coming from a structural increase in uncertainty.