Tag : Federal Reserve

The hopes and uncertainty of a new era

A festive spirit has swept Wall Street as investors anticipate tax cuts for both households and companies, and to a lesser extent, greater spending, notably on infrastructure. In contrast, the bond market has slumped.


The thin line between complacency and clairvoyance

Blind, complacent, cool-headed, driven by moral hazard, clairvoyant? Or should we follow the example of the Bank for International Settlements and call it “dissonant”? Which term best describes this summer’s market behaviour?


New monetary season

For the financial markets, summer’s end is often the occasion for deep-felt upheavals. This summer, investors left on vacation filled with trepidation about the economic impact of Brexit, about robust job creations in the US and how they might change monetary policy prospects, and about the outcome of European banks’ stress tests.


Currency markets weigh on central bank autonomy

This chart shows the evolution of the euro, the yen and the US dollar since the start of the year as well as the evolution of 10 year government bond yields in Germany, Japan and the US.


How to make the most of economic forecasts

Comparing previous forecasts with actual results can be a source of frustration. This was certainly the case concerning oil prices in 2015. For users of these predictions, enormous spread underscores the importance of understanding the forecasters’ level of confidence.


Dichotomies dominate the global economy

In recent months, the financial press has provided extensive coverage of the Chinese growth slowdown, the hesitations of the Federal Reserve to hike or not and the decisiveness of the ECB to ease more if need. They are a reminder of the dichotomies which characterise the world economy. To visualise this, the following chart uses […]


US slowdown disbelief

In the US the slowdown in the manufacturing sector is clearly illustrated by the decline in the ISM manufacturing index


When the markets step in for the Fed

In the United States, the monetary environment has tightened even though the central bank did not raise key rates. Explanation.