William De Vijlder

Group Chief Economist BNP Paribas

Tag : Eurozone

Eurozone: Blinded by the light?

Eurozone economic growth is robust. This dynamism is shared amongst its members. However, important structural differences remain. The favourable cyclical environment calls for an economic policy to boost potential GDP growth and strengthen the resilience.

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ECB: Sintra’s syntax

The market reaction to the introductory speech of Mario Draghi at the ECB conference in Sintra was strong
This reflects a high degree of unease about the prospect of a policy normalisation.

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Eurozone: how good can it get?

The eurozone is doing better. In fourth-quarter 2016, there was a real acceleration in both the manufacturing and services sectors. And according to European Commission data, both household confidence and business sentiment have improved strongly since mid-2016.

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Higher oil prices: good news or bad?

On 20 January, Brent crude oil was trading at USD27.88 a barrel (EUR25.52), the lowest price this year. Prices recently rebounded to USD50 (EUR44.70). Without trying to forecast future oil pricing trends – which, as shown by the experience of 2015, are even more difficult to predict than other economic variables – it is worthwhile to consider the consequences of higher prices

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Meetings at the summit

In the Eurozone, China and the UK, purchasing manager indexes for the manufacturing sector declined in February. In the United States, in contrast, the manufacturing ISM rose but still held below 50, the level separating industrial expansion from contraction.

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How to make the most of economic forecasts

Comparing previous forecasts with actual results can be a source of frustration. This was certainly the case concerning oil prices in 2015. For users of these predictions, enormous spread underscores the importance of understanding the forecasters’ level of confidence.

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The US manufacturing slowdown: a dollar story ?

The ISM index has dropped below 50 which suggests the US manufacturing sector is in contraction. The Eurozone manufacturing PMI is well above the 50 level and shows a healthy business environment. The evolution of the cyclical momentum in the US versus the Eurozone is closely correlated with the evolution of the EUR/USD exchange rate.

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Dichotomies dominate the global economy

In recent months, the financial press has provided extensive coverage of the Chinese growth slowdown, the hesitations of the Federal Reserve to hike or not and the decisiveness of the ECB to ease more if need. They are a reminder of the dichotomies which characterise the world economy. To visualise this, the following chart uses […]

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