“It depends” is in a nutshell the message from the press conference of chairman Powell after the FOMC’s decision to hike the target rate with 25 basis points, a move which was fully priced in by markets.

Judging by the comments further moves will be gradual and date dependent. Adopting a faster or slower pace would be conditioned by developments which would differ from the committee’s baseline. The market sees a 78% probability of another hike at the December meeting.

Based on how good the economy is doing, that looks like a safe bet.

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