Category : Charts

The game of correlations

One of the more surprising developments since the start of the year has been the rise in the price of gold.

 

Currency markets weigh on central bank autonomy

This chart shows the evolution of the euro, the yen and the US dollar since the start of the year as well as the evolution of 10 year government bond yields in Germany, Japan and the US.

 

Oil and equity markets: peak correlation

Markets have been in the grip of China-related worries and ever lower oil prices. What made the triangular relationship between oil/Chinese equities/Wall Street even more ferocious were the negative feedback loops.

 

Good near term outlook for Eurozone growth

Although the composite purchasing manager index (PMI) for the Eurozone saw a small decline in December to 54.0, it remains at a high level, at least compared to its recent history.

 

The Fed’s dilemma

This chart shows the evolution of the ISM Manufacturing index, the effective Fed funds rate and the employment rate, defined as the civilian employment-population ratio.

 

The US manufacturing slowdown: a dollar story ?

The ISM index has dropped below 50 which suggests the US manufacturing sector is in contraction. The Eurozone manufacturing PMI is well above the 50 level and shows a healthy business environment. The evolution of the cyclical momentum in the US versus the Eurozone is closely correlated with the evolution of the EUR/USD exchange rate.

 

Push and pull: German Bund yields between ECB QE and Fed tightening

The prospect of the ECB giving its non-conventional monetary policy another twist early December and the Fed starting its tightening cycle later that month raises important questions about the evolution of Bund yields in the coming weeks and months. Indeed, 2016 will see more Fed rate hikes whereas the ECB will continue its QE operation, […]

 
 
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