William De Vijlder

Group Chief Economist BNP Paribas

A different look

William De Vijlder takes an original approach to economics. Whether through metaphors, comparisons or the analysis of striking financial or economic texts, the economy becomes an inexhaustible source of inspiration and food for thought.

financial markets

Drivers of international contagion

High international correlations of markets can reflect the existence of global shocks, global swings in risk aversion or contagion. Contagion can be caused by a wide variety of factors. Taking into account the nature of the contagion is important when assessing its economic consequences.

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labyrinthe

Into the maze of trade disputes

The IMF and the OECD have expressed concern about rising trade tensions. At the macro level, tariffs create a lose-lose situation but the sector impact varies a lot. Beyond the direct economic effect, the impact on inflation and financial markets should also be taken into account. The biggest concern is the headwind coming from a structural increase in uncertainty.

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An economist’s playlist

It’s the time of the year for producing lists: the best films of 2015, the best books, the best songs, etc. It is a source of nostalgia and inspiration: For an economist it is tempting indeed to look for links between modern music and economic topics.

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Diary: Week 27 – 2014

Monday 7 July 2014  Paris With Belgium and France having had to leave the football world championship in Brazil, media reports talk of a surge in last-minute holiday bookings: those still taking part in the World Cup don’t count when your team is no longer playing. So losing a game can be bad for economic […]

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Diary: Week 22 – 2014

Monday 2 June 2014  Brussels  I record a video for the retail network of BNP Paribas Fortis in Belgium on the topic of systematic investing. For investors with a medium or longer-term horizon who have money to invest on a more or less frequent basis, systematic investing is very attractive. It’s easy (available cash is […]

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Diary: Week 21 – 2014

Monday 26 May 2014  Prague  Lunch meeting with an important client. A good part of the discussion is on whether there is froth in the markets. With respect to equities, we think earnings will grow sufficiently to justify rising prices in an environment of supportive monetary policy. In the media, credit markets have received even […]

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Diary: Week 20 – 2014

Monday 19 May 2014  Amsterdam In a long brainstorming session with an institutional client we discuss the market environment: The relentless decline in government bond yields: investors like the dovish message from the US Federal Reserve and expect or at least hope for action by the ECB. We don’t share the interpretation that the bond […]

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Diary: Week 19 – 2014

Monday 12 May 2014  Abu Dhabi  I land in Abu Dhabi around 7AM. It’s already comfortably warm. Later in the day it becomes uncomfortably hot (36 degrees Celsius). I have several meetings with investors to discuss the economic and market outlook. I have dinner with a former colleague who now works in the region. There […]

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Diary: Week 18 – 2014

Monday 5 May 2014  Brussels / Paris  In an email exchange with our head of tactical asset allocation, we discuss to what extent markets have surprised so far this year: the euro didn’t weaken, Ukraine hardly had an impact on markets, investors shied away from Japan and bonds have shown an amazingly positive performance. Even […]

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Diary: Week 17 – 2014

Monday 28 April 2014  Brussels  In a client meeting on our asset allocation philosophy and process I emphasise the importance of risk analysis and monitoring from the perspectives of risk factor exposure and stress environments. The former is important because diversification can just be an illusion: equities and high-yield bonds are highly correlated in economic […]

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Diary: Week 16 – 2014

Monday 21 April 2014  Easter Monday  Having been on holiday last week I go through a stack of newspapers. Admittedly, this may reflect a FOMO (fear of missing out) behaviour but on the other hand, news is pivotal in our business. One headline that grabs my attention is from the Financial Times on 9 April: […]

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Diary: Week 9 – 2014

Monday 3 March 2014  London  The developments in Ukraine and in particular Crimea are affecting financial markets along the usual lines: equities are down with Europe underperforming, the euro has weakened against the US dollar, the Swiss franc is a bit stronger, gold and oil are up slightly and bond yields have eased on safe-haven […]

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Diary: Week 13 – 2014

Monday 31 March 2014  Travel to Brasilia  At the gate at Charles de Gaulle airport, there is a pleasant surprise: Air France has its inaugural flight to Brasilia. There’s samba music and dancers. Quite entertaining. I spend a good part of the 10-hour flight reading research papers on how western markets and economic policy influence […]

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Diary: Week 12 – 2014

Monday 24 March 2014  London  At Canary Wharf in the morning for a broad ranging interview with Reuters on the market outlook. In the afternoon, we have our weekly asset allocation meeting. There is an in-depth discussion on the outlook for European high-yield bonds. The asset class has been doing very well and the good […]

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Diary: Week 11 – 2014

Monday 17 March 2014  Rome  Markets react enthusiastically to the outcome of the referendum in Crimea, taking the view that the peak of uncertainty is now behind us. This again illustrates that the change in a variable tends to be more important than its level. This applies to geopolitics, but also to economic factors: changes […]

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Diary: Week 10 – 2014

Monday 10 March 2014 London The German DAX index is underperforming the rest of Europe, which triggers a discussion on European versus US equities. The former are more attractive from a fundamental perspective (earnings growth, valuation, possibility of ECB easing), but are obviously more exposed to geopolitical risk due to tensions surrounding Ukraine and Crimea. […]

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Diary: Week 8 – 2014

Monday 24 February 2014 London  An interview for Times TV India in the morning. It’s recorded at the Stock Exchange building at Paternoster Square, next to St Paul’s, but the interviewer is in the Reuters offices at Canary Wharf and it will be shown in India. ‘The world is flat’ to quote the title of […]

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Diary: Week 7 – 2014

Monday 17 February 2014  Zurich  During client meetings we have a debate on central bank communication issues. The Fed and the Bank of England are being forced, by unemployment falling faster than they expected,  to jettison  the data contingent ‘forward guidance’. The reversion to a communication style which gives them more leeway implies more uncertainty […]

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